Arouca
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Arouca reaches Europe in 26.
This week: up 4 for Europe (22 → 26 in 100), after losing 0–1 to Famalicão.
Where Arouca may finish
If this result happens:
- Europa League10
- Conference League16
- Mid-table74
Final points 49.5 (42–57)
The final points are the mean and, in brackets, the central 80% interval. European places as the league allocates them, without the cup.
Every final position, one by one
| Position | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 9% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
Next matches
All these forecasts may still change: they lock 24 h before kick-off. Only the locked forecast counts towards our record.
The run-in
Arouca has 23 matches left, 12 at home. It is the 9th hardest run-in of 18: the opponents left finish the season on 47.7 points on average.
| Club | Rank | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 6th | MORA | FCPH | ESLA | VSCH | ESTH | SCPA | NACA | ACVH | FAMA | ALVH | RAVA | AROH | SCBA | CPIH | SLBA | MARH | GILA | MORH | FCPA | ESLH | VSCA | ESTA | SCPH |
| Arouca | 9th | RAVH | SCBA | ACVA | CPIH | GILA | SLBH | VSCH | MORA | FCPH | MARA | ESLH | STCA | SCPH | ESTA | ALVH | NACA | FAMH | RAVA | SCBH | ACVH | CPIA | GILH | SLBA |
| Gil Vicente | 13th | ESLH | ESTA | SCPH | ALVA | AROH | NACA | RAVA | SCBH | CPIA | FAMH | ACVA | SLBH | MARA | MORH | FCPA | VSCA | STCH | ESLA | ESTH | SCPA | ALVH | AROA | NACH |
| Académico de Viseu | 12th | ALVH | FAMA | AROH | SCBA | MORA | CPIH | SLBH | STCA | MARH | FCPA | GILH | VSCA | ESTH | ESLA | SCPH | RAVA | NACH | ALVA | FAMH | AROA | SCBH | MORH | CPIA |
- Very hard
- Hard
- Middle
- Easier
- H at home · A away
How hard each match is comes from the opponent's expected final points in the season simulation: very hard is one of the 3 strongest, easier one of the 6 weakest. With Arouca, the clubs closest to it.
What we said
Forecasts made before kick-off: our favourite was right in 2 of 2.
Arouca's chances, result by result
Head to head: who finishes above?
Out of 100 simulated seasons, how often Arouca finishes above its real rivals.
| Rival | Arouca above |
|---|---|
| Sporting de Braga | 17% |
| Santa Clara | 42% |
| Gil Vicente | 53% |
| Académico de Viseu | 60% |
| Vitória SC | 68% |
| Famalicão | 73% |
| Alverca | 85% |
| Moreirense | 95% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 95% |
| Marítimo | 96% |
Almost always finishes above: Nacional, Casa Pia, Rio Ave, Estoril Praia