Contas da Bola EN

Benfica

Out of 100 simulated seasons, Benfica wins the title in 40 and finishes in the top two in 95.

This week: down 5 for the title (45 → 40 in 100), after beating Estrela da Amadora 3–2.

28 points in 11 games.

Where Benfica may finish

  • Champion40
  • Runner-up55
  • Champions qualifying5

Final points 84.9 (79–91)

The final points are the mean and, in brackets, the central 80% interval. European places as the league allocates them, without the cup.

Every final position, one by one
ChampionsChampions qualifyingEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegation
0%20%40%60%Position 1: 40%1Position 2: 55%2Position 3: 5%3Position 4: <1%4Position 5: <1%5Position 6: <1%6Position 7: <1%7Position 8: <1%8Position 9: <1%9Position 10: <1%10Position 11: <1%11Position 12: <1%12Position 13: <1%13Position 14: <1%14Position 15: <1%15Position 16: <1%16Position 17: <1%17Position 18: <1%18final position
Chance of each final position. An empty cell means less than 1 in 100.
Position123456789101112131415161718
Chance40%55%5%

Next matches

All these forecasts may still change: they lock 24 h before kick-off. Only the locked forecast counts towards our record.

The run-in

Benfica has 23 matches left, 12 at home. It is the 17th hardest run-in of 18: the opponents left finish the season on 45.5 points on average.

Rank1213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334
Porto15thSCPHSTCAESTHFAMANACHSCBAALVARAVHAROAACVHMORACPIHSLBAMARHGILHESLAVSCHSCPASTCHESTAFAMHNACASCBH
Benfica17thFAMHNACASCBHRAVASCPHAROAACVACPIHMORHESLAMARHGILAFCPHVSCASTCHALVAESTHFAMANACHSCBARAVHSCPAAROH
Sporting4thFCPAMARHGILAESLHSLBASTCHESTHVSCAALVARAVHNACAFAMHAROASCBHACVACPIHMORAFCPHMARAGILHESLASLBHSTCA
Sporting de Braga3rdCPIAAROHSLBAACVHMARAFCPHMORHGILAESTHVSCAALVHESLASTCHSCPANACHFAMARAVHCPIHAROASLBHACVAMARHFCPA

How hard each match is comes from the opponent's expected final points in the season simulation: very hard is one of the 3 strongest, easier one of the 6 weakest. With Benfica, the clubs closest to it.

What we said

Forecasts made before kick-off: our favourite was right in 3 of 3.

Benfica's chances, result by result

Title
0%25%50%75%100%859095results in the tableTitle: 46% after 81 results (to 2026-10-29)Title: 42% after 88 results (to 2026-11-02)Title: 45% after 90 results (to 2026-11-03)Title: 40% after 98 results (to 2026-11-09)

Head to head: who finishes above?

Out of 100 simulated seasons, how often Benfica finishes above its real rivals.

RivalBenfica above
Porto41%
Sporting95%

Almost always finishes above: Sporting de Braga, Santa Clara, Arouca, Gil Vicente, Académico de Viseu, Vitória SC, Famalicão, Alverca, Moreirense, Estrela da Amadora, Marítimo, Nacional, Casa Pia, Rio Ave, Estoril Praia