Nacional
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Nacional goes down in 35 and stays up in 65.
This week: down 14 for relegation (49 → 35 in 100), after beating Académico de Viseu 1–0.
Where Nacional may finish
If this result happens:
- Mid-table48
- Relegation play-off17
- Relegation35
Final points 30.1 (23–37)
The final points are the mean and, in brackets, the central 80% interval. European places as the league allocates them, without the cup.
Every final position, one by one
| Position | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 16% |
Next matches
All these forecasts may still change: they lock 24 h before kick-off. Only the locked forecast counts towards our record.
The run-in
Nacional has 23 matches left, 11 at home. It is the 1st hardest run-in of 18: the opponents left finish the season on 49.5 points on average.
| Club | Rank | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1st | MARA | SLBH | CPIA | MORH | FCPA | GILH | STCH | ESLA | VSCH | ESTA | SCPH | ALVA | FAMA | RAVH | SCBA | AROH | ACVA | MARH | SLBA | CPIH | MORA | FCPH | GILA | |
| Casa Pia | 10th | SCBH | RAVA | NACH | AROA | FAMH | ACVA | MARH | SLBA | GILH | MORA | VSCH | FCPA | ESLH | STCA | ESTH | SCPA | ALVH | SCBA | RAVH | NACA | AROH | FAMA | ACVH | |
| Rio Ave | 8th | AROA | CPIH | MARA | SLBH | VSCA | MORH | GILH | FCPA | ESLH | SCPA | STCH | ESTA | ALVH | NACA | FAMA | ACVH | SCBA | AROH | CPIA | MARH | SLBA | VSCH | MORA | |
| Estoril Praia | 7th | MARH | GILA | VSCH | STCH | SCPA | ALVH | ESTA | FAMA | NACH | RAVA | SLBH | AROA | SCBH | CPIA | ACVH | MORA | FCPH | MARA | GILH | VSCA | STCA | SCPH | ALVA | ESTH |
- Very hard
- Hard
- Middle
- Easier
- H at home · A away
How hard each match is comes from the opponent's expected final points in the season simulation: very hard is one of the 3 strongest, easier one of the 6 weakest. With Nacional, the clubs closest to it.
What we said
Forecasts made before kick-off: our favourite was right in 1 of 2.
Nacional's chances, result by result
Head to head: who finishes above?
Out of 100 simulated seasons, how often Nacional finishes above its real rivals.
| Rival | Nacional above |
|---|---|
| Vitória SC | 4% |
| Famalicão | 5% |
| Alverca | 10% |
| Moreirense | 25% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 25% |
| Marítimo | 31% |
| Casa Pia | 52% |
| Rio Ave | 55% |
| Estoril Praia | 61% |
Almost always finishes below: Porto, Benfica, Sporting, Sporting de Braga, Santa Clara, Arouca, Gil Vicente, Académico de Viseu