The Primeira Liga 2026/27 in numbers
Who wins each match, who wins the league and who goes down.
Forecasts are locked before kick-off, and we always show whether we got them right.
Which is your club? See its next match and its chances straight away.
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Porto wins the title in 59 and finishes in the top two in 97. Next match: Sporting, Sun 2026-11-29 20:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 50 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Benfica wins the title in 40 and finishes in the top two in 95. Next match: Famalicão, Mon 2026-11-30 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 84 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Sporting wins the title in 1 and finishes in the top two in 8. Next match: Porto, Sun 2026-11-29 20:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 23 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Sporting de Braga reaches Europe in 79. Next match: Casa Pia, Mon 2026-11-30 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 64 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Santa Clara reaches Europe in 36. Next match: Moreirense, Sat 2026-11-28 15:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 46 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Arouca reaches Europe in 26. Next match: Rio Ave, Sat 2026-11-28 15:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 56 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Gil Vicente reaches Europe in 23. Next match: Estoril Praia, Sun 2026-11-29 18:00. Provisional forecast: it wins 50 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Académico de Viseu reaches Europe in 16. Next match: Alverca, Sat 2026-11-28 18:00. Provisional forecast: it wins 40 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Vitória SC reaches Europe in 10. Next match: Estrela da Amadora, Sat 2026-11-28 20:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 58 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Famalicão reaches Europe in 7. Next match: Benfica, Mon 2026-11-30 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 5 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Alverca goes down in 2 and stays up in 98. Next match: Académico de Viseu, Sat 2026-11-28 18:00. Provisional forecast: it wins 31 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Moreirense goes down in 8 and stays up in 92. Next match: Santa Clara, Sat 2026-11-28 15:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 26 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Estrela da Amadora goes down in 10 and stays up in 90. Next match: Vitória SC, Sat 2026-11-28 20:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 18 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Marítimo goes down in 15 and stays up in 85. Next match: Nacional, Fri 2026-11-27 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 49 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Nacional goes down in 35 and stays up in 65. Next match: Marítimo, Fri 2026-11-27 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 24 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Casa Pia goes down in 37 and stays up in 63. Next match: Sporting de Braga, Mon 2026-11-30 20:15. Provisional forecast: it wins 14 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Rio Ave goes down in 43 and stays up in 57. Next match: Arouca, Sat 2026-11-28 15:30. Provisional forecast: it wins 19 out of 100. See the club →
Out of 100 simulated seasons, Estoril Praia goes down in 50 and stays up in 50. Next match: Gil Vicente, Sun 2026-11-29 18:00. Provisional forecast: it wins 23 out of 100. See the club →
Porto Sporting
Provisional forecastIt may change until it is locked, Sat 2026-11-28 20:30, 24 h before kick-off. Only the locked forecast counts towards our record.
Picture 100 matches like this one: Porto wins 50. The most likely score is 1–1.
What if your club wins? Play out the season- Porto
- Draw
- Sporting
Last week
Round 11: our favourite won 5 of 8 matches.
- 1–0Famalicão – Aroucawe gave Famalicão 51%Right
- 1–0Nacional – Académico de Viseuwe gave Académico de Viseu 39%Wrong
- 1–1Alverca – Casa Piawe gave Alverca 55%Wrong
- 1–0Sporting – Moreirensewe gave Sporting 85%Right
- 1–2Santa Clara – Gil Vicentewe gave Santa Clara 43%Wrong
- 1–2Vitória SC – Portowe gave Porto 59%Right
- 0–1Rio Ave – Sporting de Bragawe gave Sporting de Braga 63%Right
- 2–3Estrela da Amadora – Benficawe gave Benfica 79%Right
Estoril Praia – Marítimo was postponed and has no new date yet.
What changed this week
After round 11, out of every 100 simulated seasons:
- Porto champions53 → 59up 6
- Benfica champions45 → 40down 5
- Santa Clara in Europe49 → 36down 13
- Gil Vicente in Europe12 → 23up 11
- Nacional go down49 → 35down 14
- Rio Ave go down32 → 43up 11
This week's matches
The big three first.
All these forecasts may still change: they lock 24 h before kick-off. Only the locked forecast counts towards our record.
- Benfica – FamalicãoMon 2026-11-30 20:1584 Benfica11 draw5 Famalicão
- Marítimo – NacionalFri 2026-11-27 20:1549 Marítimo27 draw24 Nacional
- Arouca – Rio AveSat 2026-11-28 15:3056 Arouca25 draw19 Rio Ave
- Moreirense – Santa ClaraSat 2026-11-28 15:3026 Moreirense28 draw46 Santa Clara
- Académico de Viseu – AlvercaSat 2026-11-28 18:0040 Académico de Viseu29 draw31 Alverca
- Vitória SC – Estrela da AmadoraSat 2026-11-28 20:3058 Vitória SC24 draw18 Estrela da Amadora
- Gil Vicente – Estoril PraiaSun 2026-11-29 18:0050 Gil Vicente27 draw23 Estoril Praia
- Casa Pia – Sporting de BragaMon 2026-11-30 20:1514 Casa Pia22 draw64 Sporting de Braga
Who wins the league?
We simulated the rest of the season 50,000 times. Out of every 100, these are the champions.
- Porto59
- Benfica40
- Others1
Who goes down?
Out of 100 simulated seasons, how often each club finishes 17th or 18th.
- Estoril Praia50
- Rio Ave43
- Casa Pia37
Since the start we have forecast 19 matches and our favourite won 13. By our own numbers it should have won between 8 and 15, so that is what we expected.
So far the bookmakers' closing odds are doing better than us. How we measure it →